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Post EU referendum thoughts / concerns / hopes

121K views 2K replies 56 participants last post by  John-H 
#1 ·
So to keep everyone contented here's the thread to discuss the aftermath of the vote to leave the EU.

Moans / groans / concerns / plans / hopes in here please. Anything and everything up for discussion.
 
#2 ·
Will kick off:

- what do leave / remain want to see most post brexit.
- do you believe we'll get a good deal from europe
- concerns about economy
- how to heal a very divided nation
- the scotland / NI debate
 
#3 ·
My thoughts (no doubt some / many will disagree) but still my thoughts..

- what do leave / remain want to see most post brexit.
1. the leave politicians actually having a plan.
2. All that money they said would go into the NHS actually landing there
3. Not getting totally buttfecked by the rest of Europe in the next two years

- do you believe we'll get a good deal from Europe
No

concerns about economy
Looks pretty Fubar at the moment, although time will tell.

- how to heal a very divided nation.
It was divided before, just different now, seems from BBC and Sky that it was the old and the lower income areas that got out and voted and made it for the leave camp.

- the scotland / NI debate
This is the big one. sturgeon & co believe that if they vote to leave the UK they will get into the EU. Don't they realise there is a queue and lots of conditions to pass to gain admission, some of which they don't hit at present. Currently they are leaving with the rest of us (London included that voted no and I am pretty sure has a larger economy, and a GDP about 50% higher) so would be out when the cut happens
 
#4 · (Edited by Moderator)
Shug750S said:
It was divided before, just different now, seems from BBC and Sky that it was the old and the lower income areas that got out and voted and made it for the leave camp.
Which is especially concerning as it's the young who have to live with this decision the longest. This says it all really...

Graph.jpg


That being said my Dad couldn't decide either way, so asked me what i'd like the most for my future, which i thought was an extremely kind gesture. 8)
 

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#5 ·
Full analysis here on Brexit fallout, with some input from the Italians :)



Ok so its a bit tongue in cheek, but we here in Ireland (The Irish ) are in debt for 42% of of the european banking crash in 2008 with like .1% of the economic activity of Europe as a whole.We were refused the ability to write off bonds (essentially mainland european banks Germany etc investing in our banks(which werent allowed to fail) to cover their asses.Hence we get to pay a large proportion of the european banking debts with our powerhouse economy :lol:
Europes no1 whipping boy..be a good European and youll get some dosh to tide you over :)
Of course some of it is our own fault. One thing I do remember and which isnt talked about much ,is that UK gave us a billion on a friendly v low interest loan , just like being a good neighbour kinda deal and the UK at the time wasnt in great shape either.

When looked at per person , Ireland is the second worst in the world for national debt. According to figures for 2014, with debt of $60,356 (€53,863 )per person, Ireland is second only to Japan ($99,725) in a list of 58 countries.
This means that Irish people carry the second largest debt burden per capita in the world, second only to Japan, and ahead of countries such as the US ($58,604) in third place; the UK in 9th ($38,938) and in 12th place, Greece ($38,444).
 
#6 ·
A friend brought this story to my attention this evening.

Basically talks about the impact of the leave vote caused by what the article stated was "english nationalists". Hopefully the sentiment in here will calm / blow over but given the context of renewed low level noises of irish nationalism in Northern Ireland once more this may I guess provoke bad feeling and additional tensions.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...rn-irish-peace-sacrificed-english-nationalism
 
#7 ·
The sinn fein/irish nationalists are P ing into the wind.. whatever about Scotland.
Its a bit complicated to get into and most here wont give a toss about Irish politics,but we in the south dont want the north anymore.
They have baggage and are used to eu and more especially UK support funds.
Southern Irish economy is the EU recovery miracle :lol: ..thats from an awfull low start base and is heavily dependent on a artificially low corporation tax base.
We are in effect the corporation tax haven of easy access to europe ,a burden of a drain like the North of Ireland would send us down the toilet again.

50 or even 70(WWII) years ago when the north was the engine of Ireland and Churchill dangled the prospect of "reunification" if we would allow use of ports which had been handed back to the Irish republic(or free state as it was then known) only a few years before, might have made sense.

Now.. not gonna happen. Yes if UK had remained in ,eventually the state of Ireland like a state in the USA might have assimilated together ,not much point in having 2 state parliaments for a 5 mill island population in a United States of Europe eh? :)
Then again Europe had/has np in doubling up functions for civil service.

I saw some Scottish dude..snp I suppose moaning about the reason Scotland voted to stay in the UK was guaranteed membership of the EU.
I think it was actually "if you fo to form your own country you will have to try and get in to the EU on your own" :0
Some of the subleties get lost in translation.
What about the 38% of the scottish population who wanted to get out of the EU anyway.. f them along with the the british weirdos?.

Even here (Irish republic) theres whinging about the UK "betraying" the european dream.Whose dream?
Ive said before. Farage strikes me as a bit of a bleachers kid.Thats like someone who peers up hoping to catch a panty glimpse while the game is going on.Just my opinion , tho without him vote might not have been carried.

I would suggest. dont take any sheet from eurocrats,Ive seen some UK guy near crying and "I cant believe it" , but weel respect the will of the people.
Continue on the "you need us more than we need you " mindset rather than "mea culpa,what is my pennance father" attitude and itll be good..I hope.

We in southern Ireland have had the "spank the naughty schoolboy, until he gets it right" condescencion..thas 4-5 million..you guys are now 65 million,up half million in a year .. dont take any sheet.

EU expansion.. what is that? ..We, Ireland when we joined the EEC back in the 70's it was purely for cash gain, mainly guaranteed farmer prices .
What do newer members want? same thing.Being uber cynical.. the eec graduating to the EU is like a giant dole payout .
We(in Ireland have sucked it dry to the extent were now a contributor even with our massive pesonal debt per capita.

German reunification(if anyone can remember that far back) was EU/eec financed to a large extent....

hopes /aspirations n so on.

nm its late and Im rambling on.. as the post is so long most wont read half of it .
Im proud of our neighbours,dont take any sheet, from hissy fit USE dreamers and go for the eec as it was originally..Norway and Switzerland pay to be allowed in the "trade club".. maybe the UK should be paid by the 'trade club of whingers" now?

best of british !
 
#8 ·
Hearing Moodys have downgraded credit rating to negative for uk. This new more than cancels out what we pay into the union.

Uncertainty being touted as the backdrop to this.

Murmurings also from the mayor of Calais that the migrant camps will be dismantled and effectively France will let the uk manage its own border..so all those that want to get across and declare asylum will now be able to do so in theory.

I'm desperately scrambling around just now to find some plus points on the back of Brexit just now to try and come to terms with the vote but it just seems that so far all the scaremongering by remain was factual info :(
 
#9 ·
I dont think theres anything that has occured yet, that wasnt expected by both sides.
Down to cases, youve now got the "long goodbye" or the "short goodbye"

Most EU politicians seem to favour the "short goodbye" why ? cos they wanna get some payback and keep their own sheep in line by trying to come down hard and appear tough. Zat vill teach ze stupid British a lesson, watch them come crawling back on their knees ,mais oui ,bien sur.
Unfortunately for them the EU escape clause has a built in 2 year timeframe from activation.I wouldnt wait too long before activating it tho.

Our own(Irish) "contingency plan" sheesh, has been leaked .. whats it consist of?
1. Begging the EU negotiators to consider Irelands situation when working out UK's terms of exit. Wow
2. Hoping that if things drag out long enough maybe they wont leave at all (actually stated).

ie our contingency brexit master plan is : The kick the can down the road, shut your eyes n hope itll go away and bury your head in the sand option.

Just to give you some idea of the type of folks youll be dealing with and the mindset.. some guy on channel 4 news, I think it was last night was interviewing. eu politicians and ex politicians in Brussels .
These were the only 2 I saw being interviewed.

Belgian big knob ex president of some EU thing: "get em out now, like tomorrow" I dont want to see their faces again,how dare they kind of thing.. and all lit up with anger almost spitting also complaining about Cameron riding off into the sunset.

Polish eu commisioner or some such, almost exact quote "There wont be any polish pilots coming to rescue Britain again"
Straight off the bat .wholly jeebus.. .
EU diplomacy my chapeau
Forgetting the fact that UK went to war with Germany cos they had a defense treaty with Poland,Poland would no longer exist as a country without the UK the polish pilots didnt bring their biplanes with them and had nowhere else to go. That to me exemplifies the reaction of the EU, not the people of the countries but the politicians .
These are the "good europeans" youll be dealing with , not saddened and concilliatory but outraged, mad and vengefull .
Liberal no, extremist yes .
Personally if given a choice here again, I wouldnt want to be part of their gang either.
 
#10 ·
Im a member of another marque motoring forum, also UK based..oh no say it isnt so ;)
Its a less exclusive forum.. marque.. not people :)
The referendum threadings on it are like 75% hurrah at the result and 25% boo.
Shrug.

Going forward..assuming (dangerous) , that the UK referendum result isnt diluted by the minority.

We in Ireland will be fighting to maintain all trading relations with the Uk /in Europe as is.
Wth? why.
Self interest.
Uk is our largest trading partner and compliant tho we are :( we wont want to shoot ourselves in the foot.
Many EU and further afield mainland european countries may not care too much and in fact many will want to be mean to UK if they can get away with it( but really cant afford to).
Your economy is too big and you have too many people to have "now you see what happens when you mess with the EU dons" payback.
This wont be admitted of course.

Perhaps if we "got an offer we cant refuse" such as . "We will funnel all financial services and trading to Dublin that we can, away from London if you agree to be nasty to the UK too and no financial services tax and weel forget about demanding you equalise your EU corporation tax for now" we might suck it up as usual.
Wouldnt surprise me to be honest, but since all 27 will have to agree to be mean to "naughty UK",just to save face , I dont see it happening.
Our financial well being,especially since were now a contributor, like UK has been for 40 years (not 20 billion per annum in and 12 billion back tho :) ).
I dont see it happening even in our worst EU behind kissing moments.
Until instantaneous matter transmission becomes a reality , we in Ireland should for our well being and the Uk's(mainly ours) be the part of pro UK EU section.
Anything else(mho)would be self defeating.

It probably sounds strange and Ive no particular interest in an Ireland UK love in, but we could become bestest buddies (If our govt have some cahonies) to block any UK shafting which btw would shaft us too.
 
#11 ·
:) Hi de Hi 3TT3 - I concur with you - nice posts and articulate. [smiley=thumbsup.gif]
You seem to be a knowledgeable [smiley=book2.gif] and have a better understanding
than a lot of people I have met and spoken to on the subject.

Ireland will always have a great deal of affection from the British,
just hope your weather is a bit better than ours at the moment.
Good Luck
miTTzee :wink:
 
#12 ·
Ho de ho ..and allo allo :)
Thats more of course "what I hope will happen" for both our countries.
I dont think Enda (our pm) did either of us any good by saying at some meeting of EU ministers "Scotland shouldnt be dragged out of EU if it doesnt want to go".
The reasoning behind that I cant follow..
I mean it wont be helpfull
Perhaps :
Hes trying to show Scotland that Ireland will be batting for all of the UK interests + our own in negotiations for brexit deal but I dont think anyone(the other 26) give a toss about Irelands "special relationship" with the UK.
The statement cant have helped Cameron any.. tho I suppose that doesnt matter much atm. It did apparently p off the Spanish and The French "All les rosbeefs out together , if some part wants to breakaway and join later fine "

I hope our guys (Irish) dont start overplaying our very small hand and start muddying the waters

We(Irish) want the best deal possible for UK in terms of European trade ,I mean market as is the stumbling point is freedom of movement /take economic migrants in EU countries and the fear of mass EU exit from "extremists" if UK gets off easy.
I find it a little ironic that the european member state politicians refer to a possible 50% + of their voting populations as extremists but hey thats another story.

Of course single market / no trading tariffs , whatever you want to call it vs economic migration within whats known as the EU is only one part of things but of the 27 countries who will be voting (or whatever ) on brexit terms. Ones who would or definitely should be on UK's side Malta.. more for historical reasons. Ireland (for personal gain) :) of the others.. I suppose it will become clear Germany appears to have softened a lot France .. not yet but may well do for economics.Italy seems hardline and so on.
Sfunny ftse is back up where it was pre referendum already.
Im not singing 'allways look on the bright side of life" in a Life of Brian way but more accentuate the positives .
 
#13 ·
3TT3 your excellent posts are always thought provoking and good read ---- thank you.
I just wonder, and it is only a thought, if all this stamping of feet by the EU Commissioners and EU MEPs is because someone dared to start removing the rails in front of their "gravy train".
 
#14 ·
Interesting that Boris lead the leave campaign and then doesn't want to stand for PM as bottled it and seems too worried about being blamed for pressing the button and invoking article 50.
 
#15 ·
I think(yes another Irish guy interfering in UK politics ;) that Boris had no choice.
heed expected backing from Gove.Goves "youre an idiot" statement and Im gonna run even tho I said I wouldnt kicked him in the nether regions.
Gove (I think) now has handed it to yer woman.. Teresa, who would vote for a backstabber?
Teresa with her statements and most especially no general election before 2020(when UK will be "out") should have it sewn up ,from an outsiders point of view.
Very smart mover (unless of course she reneges on her pre election promises..when has that ever happened in politics :lol: )
Mainly tho its Boris hairstyle or lack of.. looks too much like a younger Trump :)
 
#16 ·
j8keith said:
3TT3 your excellent posts are always thought provoking and good read ---- thank you.
I just wonder, and it is only a thought, if all this stamping of feet by the EU Commissioners and EU MEPs is because someone dared to start removing the rails in front of their "gravy train".
goodness me that sounds , a tiny bit cynical :) n thx for the post
It is funny that eu representatives elected by member states are supposed to disregard their "national interest " and work for the EU as a whole and yet when going for election(at home), this is never mentioned.

Nm :) Im biased , a eurosceptic for the most part ie I voted no in our eu treaty referendums, even in the 'get your mind right" reruns ,so take my posts as such :)
 
#17 ·
3TT3 said:
goodness me that sounds , a tiny bit cynical :) n thx for the post
It is funny that eu representatives elected by member states are supposed to disregard their "national interest " and work for the EU as a whole and yet when going for election(at home), this is never mentioned.

Nm :) Im biased , a eurosceptic for the most part ie I voted no in our eu treaty referendums, even in the 'get your mind right" reruns ,so take my posts as such :)
The only people 'elected back home' are the MEPs and they're supposed to act in their member states best interest, not those of the the EU as a whole. The roles which are supposed to work in the interest of the EU are chosen by the member states, not by public elections in those states.
 
#18 ·
Perhaps some do strive for national interest join the Gaulist grouping?,I suppose youd never have expected Nigel Farrage to be pro "government from Brussels" still he did stay there,as an MEP I mean. Ive seen the "expenses" gravy train in action "sign in on your time sheet' (queue of MEP's with their roller suitcases and airline luggage) in a rush to catch the flights home but making sure they got their EU attendance Dosh.
One "Kathy Sinnott" (Irish) who was caught red handed and didnt have the sense/nowse to shield her face/wave the cameras away like the others was dumped right quick the next "election".

Anyway thats most likely past for UK ..in a bit :)
I was surprised at the vitriol hurled (by the nice people) at anyone who voted leave, even by the media. Effectively "senile old codgers" or "ignorant working class pond scum"

Hopes:I think with Theresa May(just my opinion the next Tory leader)the UK will get what would have carried the referendum in the first place .Same Trade /financial services as now ,no "uncontrolled immigration"no more officials"representatives" off in Europe full time and as long as the EU lasts in its present form,I expect UK will be providing a trade tax(formerly known as UK's budgetary contribution).
If the figures that have been provided are correct.. ie UK pays 20 bill a year and gets back 12 at present.Something in the 5-10 bill a year (trade tax) , depending on how tough Germany wants to be :) .
Total sayonara purely in a ,Govt from the continent sense, around late 2019.

Concerns.For me would be Ireland sticking their finger in and lousing things up (against their own interest).
Weve been happy enough to shine EU booties up to now. Now(imo) would be a bad time to start trying to isolate and antagonise England for some kind of Celtic utopia.
It also would be bad to try and "poach" some financial services to Dublin away from London , just cos Europe doesnt want to listen to our special case considerations.
eg the proposed european financial services tax proposed awhile back . We dont want that either, but were happy enough to keep quiet about it and let UK shoot it down.

When UK equalises its relationship with the continent I wouldnt like "Saurons eye" :lol: to swivel back towards us and "Now what were you saying again ?"

Shame on you as an Irishman !.. Hey we all wanna be good europeans and have friendly relations with our neighbours +without the UK flyover landbridge :) we need to do whats right (sorry lapse into politic speak there ;) )
 
#19 ·
Can someone please explain why the UK should have to pay to trade with Europe and accept 'sanctions' as part of the deal?

Surely we sell them stuff and they sell us stuff, in (very) roughly the same amount, the two should cancel out.

It seems like having to pay an entry fee to shop at Tesco? :?
 
#23 ·
Hi Les,

The only bit I thought worth quoting from that was where it says, "(From Les Miserables.)" Now I thought you were happy :lol:

Seriously though, half the country are not happy and the number will likely increase:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36962059

And nothing has actually happened yet!

As for "Brexit means Brexit" do you know what it means yet? What's the plan?
 
#24 ·
Cost pressures reached a three
month high in July,
and the second
strongest in over two years.
This was linked to salaries, fuel, food prices and
the impact of the weaker sterling exchange rate.
That said, inflation remained weaker than the long
-run survey average. Although costs rose more
sharply, prices charged by service providers
increased at the slowest rate in five months.
UK service providers e
xpect business activity to
rise over the next 12 months. That said, the
strength of sentiment deteriorated to an
unprecedented degree over the survey history,
and was the weakest since February 2009. Where
activity was expected to fall, this was linked to
'Brexit' uncertainty.

Fuel has come down at Sainsbury`s today, inflation is at 0.5% and the price of my Shredded wheat is still £2.18p a box at Tesco, house building has slowed as predicted after the tax hike on buy to let purchases and all the doom and gloom has made people cautious of spending, other than that every things the same.
 
#25 ·
John-H said:
Hi Les,

The only bit I thought worth quoting from that was where it says, "(From Les Miserables.)" Now I thought you were happy :lol:

Seriously though, half the country are not happy and the number will likely increase:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36962059

And nothing has actually happened yet!

As for "Brexit means Brexit" do you know what it means yet? What's the plan?
Yep the plan is to get the hell out of it and of course half the country is not happy what did we expect. Am not happy and won't be till we are out of the corrupt EU. Some people will never be happy like yourself.. ..maybe. However "the plan" as you put it is being worked on as we speak as you know. Don't fret John the plan as with all things committees and departments in the government are working on will be revealed when ready. Just be patient we had over 40 years to get into the situation we did with the EU a few years waiting to get out wont harm. Good things come to those who wait :)
 
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