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Countries affected by the coronavirus March 12 6:33am GMT
Country Confirmed cases Deaths

China 80,932 3,172
Italy 12,462 827
Iran 9,000 354
South Korea 7,869 66
France 2,284 48
Spain 2,277 55
Germany 1,966 3
US 1,312 38
Switzerland 652 4
Japan 639 16
Norway 629 0
Denmark 516 0
Netherlands 503 5
Sweden 500 1
UK 459 8
Belgium 314 3
Qatar 262 0
Austria 246 0
Bahrain 195 0
Singapore 178 0
Malaysia 149 0
Australia 128 3
Canada 117 1
Israel 109 0
Greece 99 1
Czech Republic 94 0
Iceland 85 0
United Arab Emirates 74 0
Kuwait 72 0
Iraq 71 7
India 62 1
San Marino 62 2
Lebanon 61 3
Egypt 60 1
Finland 59 0
Portugal 59 0
Thailand 59 1
Slovenia 57 0
Brazil 52 0
Philippines 49 2
Taiwan 48 1
Romania 47 0
Saudi Arabia 45 0
Ireland 43 1
Vietnam 38 0
Indonesia 34 1
Poland 31 0
Palestinian Authorities 26 0
Georgia 24 0
Chile 23 0
Costa Rica 22 0
Algeria 20 0
Russia 20 0
Argentina 19 1
Croatia 19 0
Pakistan 19 0
Oman 18 0
Ecuador 17 0
Estonia 16 0
Albania 15 1
Hungary 13 0
Peru 13 0
South Africa 13 0
Mexico 12 0
Serbia 12 0
Azerbaijan 11 0
Brunei 11 0
Latvia 10 0
Slovakia 10 0
Belarus 9 0
Colombia 9 0
Maldives 8 0
Panama 8 1
Afghanistan 7 0
Bosnia and Herzegovina 7 0
Bulgaria 7 1
Luxembourg 7 0
North Macedonia 7 0
Tunisia 7 0
Cyprus 6 0
Malta 6 0
Morocco 6 1
Dominican Republic 5 0
French Guiana 5 0
New Zealand 5 0
Paraguay 5 0
Senegal 4 0
Bangladesh 3 0
Cambodia 3 0
Cuba 3 0
Lithuania 3 0
Martinique 3 0
Moldova 3 0
Bolivia 2 0
Burkina Faso 2 0
Cameroon 2 0
Honduras 2 0
Jamaica 2 0
Nigeria 2 0
Sri Lanka 2 0
Andorra 1 0
Armenia 1 0
Bhutan 1 0
Congo 1 0
Guyana 1 1
Ivory Coast 1 0
Jordan 1 0
Liechtenstein 1 0
Monaco 1 0
Mongolia 1 0
Nepal 1 0
Reunion 1 0
Togo 1 0
Turkey 1 0
Ukraine 1 0
Vatican City 1 0
Diamond Princess 696 7

Source: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441

EDIT UPDATE:

THE MORTALITY RATE OF COVID-19 IS 30 TO 40 TIMES THAT OF FLU AND THERE IS NO VACCINE FOR PREVENTION OR ANTIVIRAL DRUG DRUG THERAPY AVAILABLE FOR TREATMENT.

80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.


Latest update 28th April:





UK tend since 21st March updated 28th April - Update from tonight's Government briefing. Totals of people who have tested positive and cumulative deaths are still increasing but the current number actively hospitalised has plateaued. The death rate is likely to lag by around two weeks. Deaths are recorded as those who have tested positive and died in hospital. Office for National Statistics data showed there were 2,000 corona virus care home deaths in the week ending 17 April, double the previous week.

It brings the total number of deaths in care homes linked to the virus since the start of the pandemic to 3,096.:

Corona_Graph_13.png


This is the daily death reporting on a linear scale with lock-down and lock-down easing events marked to help spot any trends of resurgence. There was a two to three week delay from lock-down being applied to bringing the R < 1 reflected in the daily death rate. A similar delay may be expected for further changes.



Sources:
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

There are fact and bias checking websites with some very useful information:

https://fullfact.org
https://mediabiasfactcheck.com
 

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US confirmed cases 1,312, Deaths 38, Coronavirus.

Eighty thousand Americans died of the the flu last season, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Seasonal influenza is a killer, even in milder years. Lately, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and more severe flu seasons kill up to 56,000.

But 80,000 deaths is an unusually large toll. Here's what led to the massive spike - and why you should get your flu shot.

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/27/17910318/ ... break-shot

Singapore 178 deaths 0. Coronavirus.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 24 Apr 2009, while Singapore's first imported case of H1N1 was confirmed on 26 May 2009.
By 12 Feb 2010, about 415,000 people in Singapore had been infected.
https://mustsharenews.com/virus-outbreaks-singapore/

Italy is an outlier why?.

Why the panic?.
 

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Ref: Italy
My understanding is there is a contingent of Chinese garment manufacturers based in that country, if they went home for Chinese New Year celebrations then returned with the virus, then they may have infected their products.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Apparently it doesn't survive long on surfaces - minutes or hours so I heard but the virus particles are very small of the order of 80nm - 160nm so can be carried some distance on tiny moisture particles from deep in the lungs but you need a reasonable amount to become infected. So close proximity for longer periods is more likely to transfer etc.
EDIT - see later clarification ***
 

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It appears Italy has a rather large Chinese community.

Prato, Tuscany has the largest concentration of Chinese people in Italy and all of Europe. It has the second largest population of Chinese people overall in Italy after Milan

Lodi is epicentre of Corona outbreak, Milan has second largest Chinese population after Prato,
The driving distance from Lodi, Italy to Milan, Italy is 22 miles / 35 km

Cities with significant Chinese communities

The "Rome Chinatown". Rome, along with Milan and Prato, contains the most significant Chinese community in Italy.

The Prato Chinatown, along with the Milan Chinatown and Rome Chinatown, is the biggest and most important in Italy.

Milan Chinese 18,918 (1.43% on total resident population)
 

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bobclive22 said:
US confirmed cases 1,312, Deaths 38, Coronavirus.

Eighty thousand Americans died of the the flu last season, according to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Seasonal influenza is a killer, even in milder years. Lately, mild flu seasons tend to kill about 12,000 Americans, and more severe flu seasons kill up to 56,000.

But 80,000 deaths is an unusually large toll. Here's what led to the massive spike - and why you should get your flu shot.

https://www.vox.com/2018/9/27/17910318/ ... break-shot

Singapore 178 deaths 0. Coronavirus.

The World Health Organization (WHO) declared a public health emergency on 24 Apr 2009, while Singapore's first imported case of H1N1 was confirmed on 26 May 2009.
By 12 Feb 2010, about 415,000 people in Singapore had been infected.
https://mustsharenews.com/virus-outbreaks-singapore/

Italy is an outlier why?.

Why the panic?.
" why the panic ? " indeed,, very good question ,,, Facebook , who can not filter out paedophiles or child porn or bank skammers mange to filter out all conspiracy theory posts , certainly makes me think , there are some very good articles around . for sure it is most important to protect ones self and others but still it is interesting as to where and how it came from ,,, and why .
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
There was a good programme on Radio 4 yesterday "Inside science" explaining the origins of the virus and it's spread:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000g3gf

Crates of live animals one on top of another in Chinese wet markets, bringing together animals and humans that don't usually come into contact with each other, provides an excellent mixing ground for viruses to mutate and hop species. It's happened before with a number of other viruses such as SARS but that one died out before efforts to develop a vaccine were needed.

COVAD-19 seems to spread better due to its mobility and the incubation period hiding the evidence. It's also more deadly in the final stages than flu mainly affecting the weak and elderly but less so in the young. A vaccine is unlikely to be ready for a year or more.

We seem to be getting mixed messages on what to do from some very good experts but tied to political motivations a well as dubious reasoning.

We had Johnson at a press conference saying he shook hands with everybody at a hospital treating COVID-19 patients the other day and sounding rather dangerous and bumbling whilst his exasperated expert sat next to him advised "wash your hands" and we have Trump spouting nonsense ranging from fake news to - him saying doctors have told him he has so much natural insight about viruses he wonders why he ran for president!

We also have some very good reporting but there are some far reaching and significant effects to come out of this.

By Monday Italy was in total lockdown - the whole country of 60 million people, with a ban on public assembly, schools, universities and cinemas closed, everyone ordered to stay at home and curfew after 6pm enforced by police and army. Their hospitals are at the point of collapse because they don't have enough intensive care beds.

Meanwhile in the UK we are avoiding taking such measures but the government is now asking us to self isolate if we have any even mild symptoms of sore throat or cough.

The big difference with the UK is that we run our hospitals at 95% to 100% capacity after ten years of bed cuts and efficiency drives. Most other EU countries run their hospitals at 80% capacity which is why we have frequent blockages with patients held in corridors and waiting in ambulances delaying call out response .... and they don't.

The danger is that if the same thing happens here the death toll will rise quicker because we don't have the intensive care beds to look after mainly the elderly - which the virus affects more.

We also have a significantly higher percentage of population over 65 - around 20+% in Europe compared to around half the proportion in China with a younger population used to following government orders to take effective measures - they are at the point of turning things around there but we have a long way to go.

On Monday Italy had more than 9,100 confirmed infections, and more than 460 people had died.

In the UK, there were then 319 confirmed cases of Covid-19 on the Monday, a rise of 46 since the same time the previous day on Sunday.

The government are seen as acting too slow to take precautions, notably commented on by Jeremy Hunt the former Health secretary, meanwhile our infections are doubling every four days which by my calculation would put us on a par with Italy in less than 20 days on from the start of the week - and unable to cope sooner because of our overstretched NHS.

We also have lots of people on zero hours contracts and self employed who can't afford to take time off work - a system encouraged by the government. They won't get sick pay so will tend to struggle on infecting others rather than self isolate. The budget saw a measure to allow them to immediately claim benefit but I haven't heard of a measure to remove the five week wait for Universal Credit - so who would take that option?

The UK seem to be holding back on the more stringent measures other countries are taking. The epidemiologists are modeling the spread of the virus from the data gathered from a well run testing programme but the holding back of known to be effective action seems to be motivated by concerns over the prediction of public behaviour - not wanting either to cause panic or have people ignore instructions because the problem doesn't seem serious enough yet - rather than head off the problem effectively like they have done in Hong Kong and Singapore (see the graph at the top).

We've already had some reports of people fighting over toilet rolls in supermarkets and certainly my local Tesco was unbelievably out of all toilet rolls and pasta so you can see some reason for managing messages.

But perhaps they should explain things better rather than presume we won't understand leading to panic.

Meanwhile in the USA the situation is worse with a severe lack of available testing kits - one state of 10 million people with only a few hundred kits available for example. Kits are only available to those with health insurance and if you claim you have to pay the insurance excess first. Those without insurance would have to pay a huge cost even if they could get one. Many migrants fear going to hospital for fear of being deported. There is no Central command of healthcare. Hospitals are responsible to their shareholders and their response uncoordinated. The extent of the spread in the USA is very unclear but the dead will be easier to count.

Trump is more concerned about his re-election prospects from the effect on stock markets and had been trying to talk down the problem claiming the virus was a hoax initially but whilst he's more used to attacking his rivals on Twitter the virus doesn't have a Twitter account (as John Sopel so aptly put it) and carries on regardless.

Trump has now resorted to blaming others for the inevitable disaster and tried to blame the EU and banned air travel from there but not the UK - a politically motivated decision without justification and which is now having the opposite effect by spooking the markets with a huge blow to the aviation industry from which it might not recover.

As if to add to the contradiction the wife of the Canadian Prime Minister has tested positive after a visit to London.

Here if the government don't act with stronger measures soon or perhaps even if they do we'll possibly still end up in crusis and if we fare worse than other countries the government will likely get the blame for its management of the virus and policies over the last 10 years which have left us with an underfunded, understaffed and overloaded health service.

We've got another crisis to look forward to when the Brexit transition period ends on December 31st - if Johnson goes for no deal WTO we'll have more than toilet roll shortages to worry about. Will he try to blame the Brexit chaos on COVID-19? It would seem madness to walk into yet another crisis.
 

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John-H said:
Apparently it doesn't survive long on surfaces - minutes or hours so I heard but the virus particles are very small of the order of 80nm - 160nm so can be carried some distance on tiny moisture particles from deep in the lungs but you need a reasonable amount to become infected. So close proximity for longer periods is more likely to transfer etc.
EDIT - see later clarification ***
Interesting, I read somewhere a week or so ago that it can live for up to 2 days on a surface. There is already so much misinformation going round that I've basically switched off the news entirely to it and only taking notice official statements. If more people did the same, we wouldn't have all this ridiculous panic buying. I had to try and explain to my 2-year-old yesterday that she couldn't have cheesy pasta for lunch because there is literally not a shop in town that has an pasta of any kind. It's all getting a bit silly
 

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China accuses Usa of bringing corona into Wuhan ,,,, would not surprise me
 

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Yes, there's a lot of misinformation and a lot of hype and misrepresentation. I heard on the BBC that a hand sanitiser gel needs to be 60% alcohol to be effective against the virus. I came across a gel being used but it didn't have an alcohol content on the label. The company emailed it was 70% but I looked up the HSE data sheet and it listed ethanol content to be 1% to 10%. Still waiting for an explanation from the company.

As for pasta and toilet rolls I keep thinking why but can't get to the bottom of it.

IMG-20200311-WA0001.jpeg
 

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good old fashioned Dettol
 

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I've basically switched off the news entirely to it and only taking notice official statements. If more people did the same, we wouldn't have all this ridiculous panic buying.
Like this, 11 UK sad deaths, all had underlying health problems and all over 60 years old, the majority of the panic buying is by the younger generation. Can`t find the number of 2019-20 UK Flu deaths.

https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk ... n-17902704
 

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It isn't flu bob, it's a respiratory disease that is more likely to cause infection in anyone that doesn't have healthy lungs. I expect anyone that is often exposed to fumes/dust, smokers asthma sufferers etc is at higher risk. Unfortunately the government have opted to protect the economy over the population as it is not possible to do both. Relying on building a heard immunity means a great many more people will die over the coming weeks and months.
 

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Discussion Starter · #14 ·
I can't believe the government have opted to stop testing and go for herd immunity in the population instead. That's not management that's abrogation of responsibility .

Heard immunity works when you have a vaccine and you vaccinate enough of the population to cause a virus to be eradicated or limit its progress enough not to be a problem. It depends on infectivity. For measles you need about 95% of the population immune because it transfers to 18 others on average, for flu it's about 60% because you only pass on infection to between 1 to 1.5 people. For this COVID-19 (transfers to about two) it'll be something like about 70% of the population. BUT WE HAVEN'T GOT A VACCINE!

That means to get natural herd immunity without a vaccine we'll need about 45 million people infected and even if the death rate is 1% that's half a million deaths. That's not management it's a disaster.

Plus without testing we won't even know we've got there.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... html%3famp
 

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Think about it... You've got all these coffin dodgers being kept alive by all sorts of medication to cheat death by a few more measley years. It's just nature's angle to thin the population out, selective culling if you will and the fittest and strongest remain.

There's always something lurking to take over whatever it is that we as a human race has conquered, take the plague for example.

It's the governments chance now to save money on the old age pension and related benefits and to free up the housing stock. It could be a game changer for the younger generation...
 

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I can't believe the government have opted to stop testing and go for herd immunity in the population instead. That's not management that's abrogation of responsibility .
USA.

BY THE NUMBERS, Via the CDC: 2019 Flu - 22,000 Dead and 36 Million Infected &#8230;2019 Coronavirus - 50 Dead and 2,340 Infected.

Q: Who has died so far?

A. These were compiled using CDC reports plus news and local health department reports:

31 Washington State elderly. That includes 27 in King County, (22 at the same elderly nursing facility in Kirkland), three in Snohomish county, and one in Grant County, a patient in their 80s.

Seems to to be an exercise on world population control by the UN maybe.

Four California elderly: A woman in assisted living in her 90s, a hospitalized woman Santa Clara in her 60s, an "elderly man" in assisted living, and a 71-year-old man with underlying health conditions who'd been on a Grand Princess cruise ship.

Two Florida residents in their 70s who had traveled overseas.

One New Jersey diabetic man, 69, who suffered two cardiac arrests.

One South Dakota man aged 60-69, with "underlying medical conditions"

One Georgia man, 67, with "underlying medical conditions"

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/0 ... lity-rate/
 

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It could be a game changer for the younger generation...
Shopping in Sainsbury`s last night, 2 young males late 20`s wearing masks, everyone else including 79 year old me plus many more old farts just carried on as normal. :roll: :roll:

Coronavirus Testing - Coming Very Soon There Will be an APP for That, What can go wrong?, read the comments.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/20 ... ore-186294
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
bobclive22 said:
Shopping in Sainsbury`s last night, 2 young males late 20`s wearing masks, everyone else including 79 year old me plus many more old farts just carried on as normal. :roll: :roll:
Nice of them to protect you Bob.

That is the point of the mask - to protect others, not the wearer.

They are of little use outside of a medically regulated environment though. People still tend to touch the mask and then surfaces, let them get too damp, re-use them fail to wash their hands, touch their face etc.

To protect the wearer they need to be at least FFP2 in the EU (N95 USA) and be fitted properly, single use and hygienically handled.

*** An update on how long the virus lasts on surfaces and why the figures vary:... It lasts on hard surfaces longest possibly up to 48 hours or longer in colder damp environments. On soft surfaces like clothing, not long at all. Warm drying weather helps too.

The reason is - when an infected person coughs they breath out a mist of water droplets of varying size that contain the virus in suspension. If the droplet lands on a hard surface it tends to sit there as a droplet with the virus protected inside. That's when someone else can pick it up on their hand then touch their face and become infected.

If the droplet lands on a soft surface the moisture tends to be absorbed so the virus falls out of suspension and with no protection can easily be damaged and doesn't survive perhaps even minutes.

You can become infected by directly breathing in coughed out virus containing water droplets. You won't get infected by touching a contaminated water droplet with your hand but you can if you subsequently rub your eyes or lick your fingers etc. You break the cycle by not touching your face until after you have washed your hands or used a 60+% alcohol hand sanitiser.
 
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